Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) by 51-48%. In the 2:05pm Final NEP, weights AND vote shares were adjusted to MATCH the vote count. Bush won the Final, 51-48%. That the Final NEP 43% Bush/37% Gore weights are MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE is beyond dispute. Change to PLAUSIBLE weights in the Final and Kerry is the 51-48% winner - EVEN ASSUMING THE SAME VOTE SHARES. Therefore, Kerry MUST HAVE DONE EVEN BETTER than 51-48%, since his 12:22AM vote shares were SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED in the Final. To believe the Final NEP, you must also believe: 1) That 52.57mm (43% of 122.3mm), or 108% of the 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters still living, turned out in 2004. Or FOUR MILLION than were alive. IF we assume a PLAUSIBLE 95% Bush 2000 turnout of 46.25mm (37.83% of 122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP OVERSTATED the turnout by 6.3 MILLION. 2) On the other hand, the NEP apparently UNDERSTATED Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004. The 37% weighting means that 45.24mm (37% of 122.2mm) voted in 2004, or 92% of the 49.2mm still living. So eight percent of Gore voters stayed home? Not likely. IF we assume a PLAUSIBLE 95% Gore 2000 turnout of 46.75mm (38.24% of 122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP UNDERSTATED the turnout by 1.5 MILLION. ___________________________________________________________________ FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS HOW VOTED IN 2000 (Impossible 43%/37% weights) BUSH WINS: 62.5-59.3mm (51.1%-48.5%) Voted..2004............Vote Share..........Votes (mm) 2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other No 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21 Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00 Bush 52.57 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00 Nader 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29 Total 122.27 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50 _________________________________________________________________ FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS HOW VOTED IN 2000 (Adjusted for plausible weights) MAXIMUM WEIGHTS (100% turnout): 40.25% Gore/39.82% Bush PLAUSIBLE WEIGHTS (95% turnout): 38.24% Gore/37.83% Bush NO CHANGE in vote shares. KERRY WINS: 62.6-59.2mm (51.2%-48.4%) Voted..2004............Vote Share...........Votes (mm) 2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other No 26.22 21.44% 54% 45% 1% 14.16 11.80 0.26 Gore 46.75 38.24% 90% 10% 0% 42.08 4.68 0.00 Bush 46.25 37.83% 9% 91% 0% 4.16 42.09 0.00 Nader 3.04 2.49% 71% 21% 8% 2.16 0.64 0.24 Total 122.27 100% 51.17% 48.42% 0.41% 62.56 59.20 0.51 _________________________________________________________________ To analyze the NEP, start with the FACTS: a) 2004 vote V2004 = 122.3mm b) 2000 vote V2000 = 104.8mm c) U.S. annual death rate = 0.87% (3.5% over four years) Then we can proceed to: 1. Approximate the number of 2000 voters still alive in 2004. V2000A = V2000 * (1-.035)= 104.8*.965 = 101.1mm 2. Estimate the percentage of V2000A who voted in 2004. Assume PV2004 = 95% 3. Calculate the number of 2000 voters who turned out in 2004: V2K2004 = PV2004 * V2000A = 101.1 * .95 = 96.1mm 4. Calculate the number of 2004 voters who Did Not Vote in 2000. DNV2000 = V2004 - V2K2004 = 122.3mm - 96.1mm = 26.2mm DNV2000 = NEW registered and OTHERS who did not vote in 2000. 5. Analyze the NEP time line: 3:59pm: 8349 respondents 7:38pm: 11027 " 12:22am: 13047 " 6. Calculate Kerry and Bush vote shares of DNV2000, Gore, Bush and Nader. 7. Calculate the national vote share: Kerry led 51-48% at each time line. 8. The exit pollsters were left with a choice: a) Tell the Truth: Kerry won the National Exit Poll. The exit poll/vote discrepancy was BEYOND the 1% Margin of Error. The numbers speak for themselves. b) Change the weights and/or vote shares to MATCH THE VOTE COUNT. Even knowing that: -the weights were mathematically IMPOSSIBLE; -the 3% vote discrepancy was TRIPLE the 1% MoE; -the PROBABILITY of the discrepancy is 1 in 488 million. 9. The exit pollsters chose (b). They changed the weights AND the vote shares. The Final 2:05pm NEP of 13,660 respondents REVERSED the 12:22am NEP of 13,047 from Kerry 51-48% to Bush 51-48%. 10. The pollsters had an explanation for the discrepancy. Well, sort of. It was due to Kerry voters responding at a 56/50 ratio to Bush voters. The Reluctant Bush Responser (rBr.) The weighted average exit poll response rate was 53%. Since Bush won just 48% of exit poll responders, it implied that he won more than 54% of the non-responding 47%. But there was a problem. The rBr hypothesis was incompatible with the 43% Bush/37% Gore weights. So the naysayers had to come up with another explanation. 11. The 43/37% weighting mix was due to "False Recall". FOUR MILLION Gore voters (8%) FORGOT THAT THEY VOTED FOR GORE. THEY FORGOT JUST FOUR YEARS LATER. So they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush. And no, Bush 2000 voters DID NOT FORGET. A ridiculous explanation, but it's a moot point. It doesn't MATTER who Gore or Bush voters SAID they voted for or whether they forgot or lied. Let's review the facts: Fact 1: 43% of 122.3mm is 52.57mm. Fact 2: 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters were alive in 2004. Fact 3: 48.7/122.3 = 39.8%. NOT 43%. Fact 4: The Final Exit Poll inflated the Bush vote by 4 million. SO WHO THE EXIT POLL RESPONDENTS SAID THEY VOTED FOR IN 2000 IS IRRELEVANT. THE MAXIMUM NUMBER (MAX) OF 2000 VOTERS IN 2004 IS FIXED BY THE FORMULA: MAX = TOTAL VOTED IN 2000 - TOTAL DIED. NOTHING CAN CHANGE THAT FACT. THE 2000 VOTE COUNT IS INDEPENDENT OF 2004 EXIT POLL SAMPLING. IT'S THE BASIS FOR DETERMINATION OF PLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL "WEIGHTS". PRELIMINARY "GROSS" WEIGHTS ARE BASED ON THE 2000 VOTE COUNT. THESE ARE "MAXIMUM" WEIGHTS WHICH CANNOT BE EXCEEDED - BY DEFINITION. TURNOUT PERCENTAGES OF GORE, BUSH AND NADER 2000 VOTERS MUST BE ESTIMATED TO DETERMINE "NET" WEIGHTS FOR CALCULATING NATIONAL VOTE SHARES. |